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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  November 15, 2012 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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with you. that will do it for "power lunch" for a thursday. "street signs" begins right now. welcome to "street signs" where stocks continue to try to hold up as tyler noted. but with the fiscal cliff uncertainty over taxes, and now fighting in the middle east, should we be happy that we are not down even more? we have got smart guests for you with some big-time advice. apple and google both down more than $100 a share in just a few weeks. remember their race to $1,000? why it is looking more now like a race to $500. say it ain't so, ho ho. the terrifying cream-filled story of why twinkies might become a thing of the past. welcome to "street signs," everybody. we do actually have some very serious breaking news on two dinch fronts for you.
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first, domestic, then international. domestically, the president is now on staten island with the mayor of new york, michael bloomberg. that is a live look there at the president actually at the microphone speaking in staten island where many families still remain without power. let's listen in. >> -- until the rebuilding is complete. and i meant it. so i'm going to come back today, but i'm also going to be coming back in the future to make sure that we have followed through on that commitment. i want to thank the outstanding leadership that's been provided by state and local officials. obviously governor cuomo an mayor bloomberg have done an outstanding job. to borough president malinari, thanks for your leadership when folks on this island were obviously going through extraordinarily difficult times.
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people of long island who are going through really tough times. across the board what we've seen is cooperation and a spirit of service and for the first responders who are here, the police officers, the firefighters, the ems folks, the sanitation workers who sometimes don't get credit, but have done heroic work, we are so grateful to you because you exemplify what america's all about. i'm grateful to the red cross who's been so responsive, not just here but in disasters around the country and i want to thank all the volunteers as we were shaking hands over there, we had folks from every part of the country. we had some canadians who had come down to help out and during difficult times like this, we're reminded that we're bound together and we have to look out for each other and a lot of the things that seem important, the petty differences melt away and we focus on what binds us together and that we as
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americans are going to stand with each other in their hour of need. now, more specifically we are now still in the process of recovery. as you can see as you travel around parts of staten island, as we flew over parts of other parts of the city and the region that had been impacted, there's still a lot of clean-up to do. people still needrgency help. they still need heat. they still need power. they still need food. they still need shelter. kids are still trying to figure out where they're going to be going to school. so there's a lot of short-term immediate stuff that has to be dealt with and we are going to make sure that we stay here as long as people need that immediate help. that's fema's primary task. we'll be coordinating closely with state and local governments to make sure folks are getting the short-term help.
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but what we've also already heard there's going to be some long-term rebuilding that's required. you look at this block and you know that this is a community that is deeply rooted. most of the folks that i met here have been here 20, 30, 50 years. they don't want to see their community uprooted. but there's got to be a plan for rebuilding. that plan's going to have to be coordinated and there's got to be resources. what i've attempted to do is work with senator chuck schumer and also working with governor christie and the jersey delegation to try to come up with a game plan for how we're going to be able to resource the rebuilding process. i'm confident as governor cuomo said that we'ring about to be able to do it. but it is going to require everybody focus on getting the job done. we're going to have to put some of the turf battles aside, make sure that everybody's focused on
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doing the job as opposed to worrying about who's getting the credit or who's getting the contracts or all that stuff that sometimes goes into the rebuilding process. on the federal level, because this is going to be such a big job, i want to assign one particular person who would be in charge from our perspective, who would be our point person. because fema basically runs the recovery process. it doesn't focus on the rebuilding. for that we've got to have all government agencies involved. janet napolitano's done a great job with respect to dhs, but we thought it would be good to have a new yorker who's going to be the point person and so our outstanding hud secretary, sean donovan, who used to be the head of the new york housing authority so he knows a little bit about new york and building, is going to be our point person and he's going to be working with the mayor, the governor, the borough presidents, the
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county officials, to make sure that we come up with a strong, effective plan and then i'll be working with the members of congress to do everything we can to get the resources needed to rebuild. i have every confidence that sean is going to be doing a great job and so people should feel some confidence about that. let me just close by saying this. i had the opportunity to give some hugs and communicate thoughts and prayers to the moore family. they lost two young sons during the course of this tragedy. and obviously i expressed to them as a father, as a parent, my heartbreak over what they went through. and they're still obviously a little shell shocked. but they came here in part
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because they wanted to say thank you to all the people who had been supportive of them. they in particular mentioned lieutenant kevin gallagher of the nypd who, when they knew that their sons were mi lieutenant gallagher made a point of staying with them and doing everything he could so that ultimately they knew what had happened with their boys and were able to recover their bodies and has been with them as a source of support ever since. that's not in the job description of lieutenant gallagher. he did that because that's what so many of our first responders do. they go above and beyond the call of duty to respond to people in need. and so i want to give a shout out to lieutenant gallagher but i also want to point out, the moors, even in their grief, asked me to mention lieutenant
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gallagher and that says something about them as well. and that spirit and sense of togetherness and looking out for one another, that's what's going to carry us through this tragedy. it's not going to be easy. there is still going to be, believe it or not, some complaints over the next several months. not everybody's going to be satisfied. i have to tell you, the insurance companies and some of the other private sector folks who are involved in this, we need you to show some heart and some spirit in helping people rebuild as well. but, when i hear the story of the moors and i hear about lieutenant gallagher, that's what makes me confident that we're going to be able to rebuild. all right? i'm very proud of you, new york. you guys are tough. you bounce back just as america always bounces back. the same is going to be true this time out. all right? thank you very much, everybody. >> the president in staten island reiterating his commitment to seeing the job
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through of rebuilding in long island and staten island, as well as parts of new jersey and also sending his condolences to the moore family that lost their two young sons. president will continue to tour the hard hit area where many families still are either homeless or do not have power. more breaking news happening in israel. we have learned that israeli ground forces are on the move toward gaza. it comes after rockets were fired at tel aviv from within the palestinian controlled region. it is 9:00 p.m. in tel aviv. air raid sirens are sounding. this is the first fitime that's happened since the gulf worse. 30,000 reservists have been called up. aaron, this is ramping up quickly. when does it end? how does it get resolved? >> good question. it's really old wine in new bottles. in '08 and '09 israel and hamas went at each other. confrontation lasted three weeks. large parts of gaza were destroyed. israelis in the south spent
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better part of their lives in shelters. almost 1,400 palestinians were killed. so this could escalate. the reality that's being driven by a lot of jihadis in gaza using high trajectory rockets. the israelis i think in the run-up to elections are under great pressure from those southern communities to stop the source of this rocket fire. in the end, i know it is risky to make predictions, but i don't think that either hamas or the israelis have a stake right now in pushing this into a large-scale ground operation with weeks and weeks of urban warfare. if the egyptians can lean on hamas to lean on the jihadis, the americans are talking to the israelis. the president has talked to both president morsi of egypt and president netanyahu, maybe there is a way to deescalate this. but nobody ever lost money
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betting against violence and confrontation in the middle east. chances are it is going to get worse before it gets better. >> certainly from a market perspective, the middle east produces one-third of the world's oil. we'll be watching that as well. aaron miller, thank you for your take. we are now having a chat about what the market reaction is -- let's move on and take a look at what's happening from the market perspective. david kelly joins us from jpmorgan funds. a chief global strategist from tpw. sri, from an investment point of view, how should we be viewing the escalating violence in the middle east? >> i think the escalation is going to go on for some time. and to that extent it is going to push oil and energy prices higher in the very short term, mandy. but if you go beyond that and if it is going to be a conflict which comes to an enwithin a week and there is a reasonable settlement, the longer term impact on oil prices is actually downward because you see the global growth slowing.
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the european debt crisis, fiscal cliff, they're all negative for the oil price. >> the worst case fear is that iran could get involved. is that something the investor needs to take care of? >> i don't think the investor can build that into his expectation so that is clearly a risk. so they have to watch it and expect the oil price to be up in the very short term but the investor should basically look for the oil price to be lower if they are looking forward six months or 12 months ahead because you're looking at a slowing global economy and push downward on commodity prices or energy included. >> david, what's going to happen in the next six weeks of the year? >> well, i think people are going to be very worried about this fiscal cliff issue. i think the problems in the middle east obviously are concerning but i think the critical issue there is iran rather than israel and hamas. but people will be focused on this fiscal cliff issue. we need to have a compromise. we need a fiscal ladder to gradually bring the deficit down say one percentage point gdp a
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year. until they get that compromise -- >> david, what's the bigger deal? the fiscal cliff, the uncertainty around tax rates, which is part of that, or what's going on in the middle east? >> i think the fiscal cliff is the biggest problem here. there is an issue obviously with iran's nuclear problem. there is obviously instability in syria and in the gaza strip but ultimately that's not going to think -- i don't think it is going to affect global oil supplies thatch. if you don't see an actual disruption in global oil supplies, i think that will become less of an issue. the big issue is are we going to shoot ourselves in the foot by having such a huge increase in taxes and such a huge cut in spending at the start of the year that the u.s. gets pushed back into recession. i don't think that's going to happen but that is what the market's going to focus on. >> what's the biggest mistake people make with regards to investing around the fiscal cliff, david? >> i think there are two mistakes. first, people need to realize that we are likely to get a solution. to me the three scenarios are an early deal, a just-in-time deal
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or a late deal in late january. the amount of pressure focused on congress to do a deal is going to be overwhelming from every aspect of the american economy. i think that will push them to a deal. i think the first mistake is assuming there won't be a deal because there will. the second is trying to pick little sectors in this whole issue. the real issue to me is that asset allocation is just completely messed up for many institutional and individual investors. people need to be a little bit more overweight equities, underweight fixed income. whether this is resolved expect both equity prices and fixed interest rates to move up. whether it does, make sure you are positioned to take advantage of that. >> i think there is a lot you can do on the asset allocation side even as you wait for the fiscal cliff. like what? we are talking for quite some time on the program here that fixed income yields are going to be going down. fiscal cliff is going to accelerate it because there is a problem if there is no deal. or even if there is a moderate deal and downward pressure on the economy in the first half of
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2013, yields are going to go down for u.s. treasuries, high-grade market backed securities. you are going to benefit from that. the euro's downward move is going to get accelerated because the dollar will be king under those circumstances. >> what about etfs? is it obviously matters right now how things are taxed and etfs are considered more tax officials. >> they are considered more tax efficient. they are going tonight beneficiaries of any of these tax related fears that are there, mandy. but i would argue to set aside the tax aspect they are going to all benefit from it. the final point in terms of what you need to be prepared for -- gold price. we have seen that coming down. we saw that go down quite a bit. i've been very bearish on gold price for the last year and i think we are going well below $1,600. >> that's quite a lot of everything being thrown out with the kitchen sink. thank you very much. remember the race to $1,000 a share between apple, google and priceline? it may now be a race down to
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$500. look at that. wow. apple in fact down 11% this month! >> $29 away from $500 now. >> yeah. we'll debate whether any of them are poised for a comeback. china has a new leader, folks. some say he is all sizzle, no steak. no one really knows what he's about anyway. could he be more dangerous than anyone thinks? [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, ready to help.
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attorney general eric holder is currently in new orleans.
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he's holding a news conference with regards to bp's settlement over the historic and disastrous oil spill in the gulf of mexico in 2010. bertha coombs is currently at the break news desk to bring us any information that she has as soon as thooe she hshe has it. we'll monitor that for you. china has a new leader but little is known about the man picked to lead the country. let's gli peter navarro, economist and director of the film "death by china," peter, i'm very interested in your assessment of xi jinping and whether or not this man can lead this country into the 21st century considering that a lot of conservatives got in as opposed to reformers. >> well, first of all, this is just a brilliant choice on the part of the chinese. it's the best possible face you could put to the west. kennediesque charm. rock star wife. harvard daughter. got it all. question of course is going to be whether his actions are able to speak louder than his charm because he is surrounded by six hardliners. that's going to be the question.
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>> what does it mean for us? in the west? >> first of all, china's got its own version of the fiscal cliff. it's the export dependency cliff. one of the first things xi could do would be to basically introduce his own version of obama care which would be essentially health care and pensions for the chinese people which were stripped in the 1970s when they went in the direction they've been in. that's going to be really important. bullying in asia. big for our pacific fleet and the world. this conflict with japan, vietnam, over oil, that's a biggie. of course the currency machine population and cheating will be a thing. then there is the genocide ongoing in tibet. i think this man's dangerous because he looks so good and sounds so good, yet the party itself is rigid. the joke here would be, lipstick or an yoorwellian pig.
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>> i don't like their policies in large part either, china. but isn't china just doing what it has to do to go from basically a third world nation just 30 years ago to a second or 1.5 world nation? >> yes. that's a great question because right now is where they have to make the shift, the structural change, the sea change. that's why xi is so important, because he's the guy that can take them. sure, for the last 30 years they've been operating on this export dependency model using unfair trade practices. but right now it's too big to consumers, europe and the united states are basically flat-lining. we can't support chinese growth anymore. they got to support it on their own. so if xi can take them to the next step to change, that will be all good. if he can't, that's the danger we face because there will be economic tension, there will be military tension in asia, and the chinese people themselves will continue to be victims. >> brian's point is very well made because this leadership
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handover was essentially all decided behind closed doors. when, if ever, will there be any appetite for democracy in china? >> well, thanks to cisco systems, yahoo! and google and things like that, it is going to be a long time. right now because of western technology, they have an incredible censorship operation there. so it is very, very difficult for anybody to speak up. but i think the important point here is that this is a chance for us. this guy, if he practices what he preaches, then we all in this world have a chance for more peaceful and prosperous future. if the hardliners -- if the six other guys surrounding him drag him down and he's just a puppet, we're in trouble. from good luck to him is all i can say. peter, thank you very much for joining us. we are going live to tel aviv for an update on a developing situation there. >> this could be the final countdown for twinkies. hostess bakery and striking workers have just two hours left to come to a deal or you might have to kiss those delicious
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let's get some breaking news now on bp. bertha coombs. >> bp has agreed to plead guilty to 11 criminal counts involving the death of those people in the 2010 explosion. attorney general eric holder says, however, despite the guilty plea and the $4.5 billion settlement, this case is not closed. also announcing that the government has charged two high-ranking bp officials with what's called seaman's manslaughter. 23 criminal counts in all for each of them. 11 charges of seaman's manslaughter involved with those deaths. they've also charged the deputy incident commander, the second highest ranking bp official on site there at the unified command with criminal charges, charged with hiding information and lying to congress. i spoke with a former federal prosecutor in the environmental law and he says, those were the people who were on the ground but a lot of what happened here also was systemic with bp and there are a number of critics
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who will likely say maybe this isn't enough. he says attorney general eric holder also says they've been unable to resolve the civil case. that case is ongoing. the government intends to prove that bp was grocery negligessly he says, and that trial is set to begin in february. it has been a very big breaking news hour because we told you at the top of the program that israeli forces are moving ground forces towards the gaza strip. joining us live from tel aviv, nbc's martin fletcher. martin, we can only watch this escalating situation from afar. are you on the ground. tell us what you're seeing. >> reporter: well, mandy, it's getting pretty grim, as a matter of fact. as you said, the israelis are moving ground forces to the enl of the gaza strip. their regular army is already there poised to invade if given the orders. reserve troops have been called up already, some. now the latest thing is this evening, israel's defense minister ehud barak has given the okay to call up another 30,000 reserve soldiers. doesn't mean they've been called
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up yet but they can now be called up at any instance and did he it specifically for the possibility of a ground invasion. israel's been broadcasting in every possible way -- and i find it rather unprecedented -- that this is what their plan is. they say we will do everything it takes to stop the palestinians in gaza, hamas in particular, from firing rockets at israeli towns. they're trying to do it from the air and from the sea, trying to destroy the rocket piles but they say -- israeli defense minister said earlier today, "we will do anything -- and i repeat anything -- it takes to keep those israeli towns in the south secure." hinting of a ground invasion. they're now building up the forces. >> what is the worst case scenario here, martin? >> i think the worst case scenario is really a ground invasion. israel definitely does not want to do it. palestinians in gaza are really frightened of this happening because of course their experience with israeli ground invasion is very bitter indeed.
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israel doesn't want to do it because of the potential pitfalls of how long it can last. you can begin a war. you don't know how it is going to end. it will endanger israel's relations with egypt if they do this. but at the same time, they say it's what we have to do if we -- it may be what we have to do to achieve our goal of stopping palestinians from firing rockets inside israel. 850 rockets fired this year. >> martin, thank you for keeping us updated. you keep safe as well. next here on "street signs" -- we plot out your fiscal cliff portfolio with the head of schwab advisors. the big warning about energy drinks. another popular brand could be linked to multiple deaths. that story straight ahead. sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments.
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it is street talk time. literally racing you tli five stock stories that you may have missed. we've got j&j coming up. >> berkshire hathaway cutting their stake by 95% down to 492,000 shares from 10.3 million. downgraded to hold from jeffries earlier this week. petsmart is next on the
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list. higher on a big earnings beat. >> coming in 12 cents ahead of consensus. netapp up 11%. however still down 17% year to date. it was upgraded to outperform by raymond james. >> cablevision downgraded. >> goldman sachs downgraded to a sell. you don't see that much from neutral. the target cut to 11 from 15. this was upgraded october 22nd. >> one of the hottest stocks this year cooling down. vri vringo. >> revenue was a record. they filed a lawsuit in germany over allegations patents were
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infringed. this is really a patent play, by the way. one of those names, it runs or dies on the headlines. well, how can you protect yourself in these uncertain times? right? there is a lot of uncertainty. let's talk to chuck -- or rather to bernie. bernie clark, executive vice president and head of schwab advisors services. bernie, lot of questions out there about tax rates, the fiscal cliff. give our viewers one reason why they should even bother to own stocks right now. >> well, brian, it's exciting. i'm here at impact 2013 which is the epicenter of registered investment advisors. we've got 4,000 attendees and the largest gathering of advisors that happens each year for the last 21 years. i will tell you, there is certainly concern in this group but there is optimism. there's confidence being built up about what they can do for their clients and planning. >> why? why are they confident? what's that confidence based on? >> as they think about the trajectory that the markets have been on and the uncertainty
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that's been there and politics aside, the president has been decided. and now one piece of uncertainty has been solved. now we need to get on and moving forward towards the tax code and the fiscal cliff obviously and begin solving some of those. i think we can see a way out of this. advisors for the last five years have been building relationship with their clients that lead them to have that kind of confidence that their clients will stay with them and they'll figure out a plan. >> you think capital gains rates are going to go up significantly, bernie? >> capital gains rates is one of those big questions. they've already begun planning with their clients what would be the strategy should rates begin to move. they're actually thinking about what needs to happen now in 2012 in anticipation of some kind of move. we understand there is going to be tax changes in 2013. the cliff may not be as steep as we think it could be but certainly they're getting clients ready for the inevitability of that as well as the dividend tax. >> what's the one thing clients ask? >> how can i retire, what's my
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long term and how can i protect for the next generation. they're really concerned about making sure they preserve their wealth for that generation. i think we will see conserve tichl as we resolve some of these issues within our country as i'm sure we will, i think we'll see more certainty come back in. >> we certainly need some certainty. thank you, bernie. check more of our coverage of the schwab impact 2012 investor summit. investorsummit.cnbc.com. will we soon fall off the twinkie cliff? >> but first, a big warning for anybody that uses a popular energy shot to stay away. you're going to want to hear this next story. gecko (clearing throat)
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i'm bill griffeth coming up on "the closing bell." it is all about the fiscal
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cliff. talking spending cuts with house financial services committee ranking member barney frank. we'll find out which cuts he thinks both sides can agree on. the two men leading the charge to fix the fiscal cliff db alan simpson and err kin bowles will tell us whether they think washington can rise above the rhetoric and reach a deal. we'll find out if they think an agreement will look anything like the plan they proposed nearly two years ago. maria is still in chicago. i'm in new york. see you at the top of the hour for "closing bell." a frightening headline for anyone who downs those energy drinks to stay awake. fda has received reports of 13 deaths over the last four years that could be related to the use of 5-hour energy. super caffeinated energy shot is what we are talking about. fda also received reports of deaths possibly tied to another energy drink, monster energy. -- story, monster beverage. currently down 25% since that
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news broke. down 1.6% today. herb's watching this story. >> the health concerns have been out there around this company, this industry for at least six years. the big change is the allegations of death. now in a statement, 5-hour said that it is, "a compact sized energy shot intended for busy adults. it is not an energy drink, nor marketed as a beverage." then on its earnings call a week ago, monster ceo rodney sachs says there is not a shred of information which casually lynx monster to these adverse effects. regardless, the question is this -- is this news impacting monster's business? last quarter sales and profit growth reported a week ago fell off a cliff. or about half the rate of the prior quarter. the company blamed this on a less robust growth for the energy drink industry in general. therein lies i think an important part of the story as you go forward. all this publicity, is it starting to have an affect on
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all the sales. >> what do you think? >> well, the company didn't say that. i think it has to be having some effect. you just think -- they're not going to come out and say that. we'll see. >> numbers do not lie. >> we will know in a farther. we will know in a quarter if the trend continues. >> i tweeted out the one interview that i could find given by the guy that owns 5-hour energy, his company behind a company who says he's probably the richest indian-american, lives in some small home, claims he's worth a couple kund million, if not $1 billion in michigan. this guy's mysterious. >> he doesn't -- he doesn't have to say anything to you or me if he's doing that well. you should read this statement they put out. quite a statement. >> before we let you go, real quick, diamond foods absolutely tanking today. >> what a mess. restating two years of results. wiping out more than $50 million in trofts aprofits all tied to improperly accounting for payments to walnut growers. collapsing margins down 500
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basis points from the first quarter to the third quarter. basis points jumps in just a little increment. in the world of finance, they say every basis point counts. >> it sure does. high-frequency trading gets slammed constantly but we really haven't heard a high-speed trader defend its systems -- until now. bob pisani spoke exclusively to dave cummins, owner of trade bot systems. several million trades a day for them. there now that we are trading in milliseconds, faster than humans can react, brian, i asked dave if he thought it was time to slow down the markets and introduce speed bumps. >> i think if you introduce artificial speed bumps, it causes other distorting effects that are generally not helpful for the market. i think you need -- and the markets need mechanisms that automatically slow them down when we get extreme situations like the flash crash is a great
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example. >> what would happen if there was a speed bump. say you could only trade in pents pen tenths of a second. or every second. would you recalibrate the machines? >> we can imagine all different kinds of rule systems. whatever the rule systems are, we are try to recalibrate our trading strategies to play within those rules but i think we want to make sure that we've got a rule set that creates the kind of market structure that we want for all the whining and complaining about high-frequency trading and all that, the average retail investor gets a really good deal. the bid offer spreads are tighter than they've ever been. when you push a button, you get a fill almost instantly. your broker's charging you less than $10 on a lot of trades. you can't lose sight of that outcome. >> you heard what he said there. average investor he insists benefits from high-frequency trading.
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more on cnbc.com. i talked about quote stuffing and whether high-frequency traders manipulate markets. not many of these guys ever talk. we had a wide ranging discussion the other day. >> thank ugg fyou for break beie silence then, bob. oh, how the mighty fall. up next, who's going to fall first? twinkies. will the great twinkie be saved? what about the yodel? the dingdong? the fate of the devil dog. they're all on life support. we'll eat all those on a commercial block. it will be a great next block. stick around. 70 of the fortune 100 companies now provide 401(k)s, or similarly defined contribution plans, an all-time high. but the number offering pension
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plans continues to dwindle. in 1985, 89 companies offered traditional pension plans. so how many offer it today? we'll tell you when we return. i put away money. i was 21, so i said, "hmm, i want to retire at 55." and before you know it, i'm 58 years old. time went by very fast. it goes by too, too fast. ♪ but i would do it again in a heartbeat. [ laughs ] ♪ ♪
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today's "return on retirement --" how many fortune 100 companies still offer traditional pension plans? the answer -- 11. down from 89 in 1985. according to tower watson. for more on retirement, go to retirement.cnbc.com. a few months ago it looked like three stocks were on a race to $1,000 a share. unfortunately, now, unless you're short, it is a sprint the other way. down to $500. >> the question is who is going to get there first? joining us now, co-founder of
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the spoke investment ground,fir? paul, what say you? >> well, i think if you look at the share prices you flashed up, apple would be the logical guess since it's the closest there. it's had about a 25% drop, but if you look back since 2000 at apple's declines of 20% or more, they've averaged about 30%. if you interpret that into today's decline, that would give you about a level of 490 and over an 81-day period, which takes you to december 8th of this year. this decline in apple is pretty much going according to the average. remember, the stock had an 800% gain from early '09 until now without any 20% decline. very long stretch. >> howard, what's wrong with apple? >> you know, there is a lot going on. there's a war of the worlds right now for mobile. google and apple are right in
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the middle of it. right now neither stock or company is performing well. i think under the hood they're performing well. there's just a lot of pressure. there's a lot of nervousness in the market. samsung's new phone came out. that's really a great, interesting form. people are just, you know, moving money around right now with taxes, end of the year, confusion over where obama's going to sit. listen, there's a lot of signals to get out of both of these stocks two, three weeks ago. for us continuing to talk about it, it's hard to predict. >> what's going to propel apple back up to 1,000? >> that would take -- stock hits 500. now we're looking at a double. company has $120 billion in cash. it's not easy to double a 5, $600 billion company.
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the stock is really big. wall street doesn't love the value. maybe because so many other great retailers have been left with stores that just become shrines and not selling product. apple stores move things. they're going to be king makers for many years throughout these stores. i think that's the most undervalued part of the apple brand. >> all right. paul, of the three names, to you, who looks to be the most in trouble longer term? >> well, i mean, the most in trouble longer term, you know, as far as expectations, you look at apple. to get to 1,000, it's already the biggest company in the world. i don't think we're going to see that kind of hyper growth from apple. it's relatively attractively valued, ten times earnings if it gets to 500, which it's close to now, which is cheaper than a utilities stock. you have a lot of competition in the online travel space with priceline. there's a name to, you know,
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maybe be a little weary of there. then buying kayak, which was anything but attractively valued, shows they're looking for, you know, any avenue to increase growth. >> howard, what do you think happens to the share price of both google and priceline? >> well, you know, the issue, i think -- sorry, i think you're talking about google. the issue with google is i'm long both apple and google. with google, i believe at $500, we have much bigger problems. if google sees 500 and apple sees mid-400, there's something else going on at that point. right now, buying the dips in apple hasn't been extremely painful for people to start in at 600 on the first real big dip. once you get into 20, 25% dips from an already original, you know, pullback, then you start thinking about what really happened here in the market? what else is going on in the underlying factors? i think with google and apple being so well positioned, there would have to be something else going on government-wise,
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tax-wise, or just mood of the country-wise that just takes those stocks and obliterates them that much further. >> howard, the dow is up about 2.5% now year to date. will it end the year positive? >> i'm confident we're going to end the year positive. i think we're still in a good spot where alternatives to the stock market are weak. america's still very relatively strong. all the margins for production reside in patents and thinking happens in the united states still. so i'm very bullish. >> paul, howard, thank you for your thoughts today. coming up next, it could be the last hoorah for some sweet and spongy snacks. >> hostess says it will shut down for good, liquidate, if striking workers do not get back to work by 5:00 p.m. tonight. [ male announcer ] when it comes to the financial obstacles
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it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. the twinkie cliff. hostess says it's got about two hours before it shuts down and liquidates unless its striking workers union comines to a deal and gets back to work. it's a well-known company and a big story. >> it employs almost 19,000 people. if they liquidate, none of them will have jobs. i spoke earlier today with the
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ceo of the company who's been trying to keep the company afloat. he said right now they're operating at about 50% capacity. they've closed 12 plants. he says it only makes sense if you can't get those people back to work, you can't actually make these to sell to people. >> is he confident they're going to get a deal by 5:00 p.m. today? >> i think he's learned throughout this process it's not over until someone sings. i don't want to say fat lady because we have a lot of really unhealthy food here. he says they have a meeting with the banker judge on monday. they're fully prepared to do it. >> it's been tough for the workers. they've already take an huge -- i think it was a 32 or 30% pay cut when they filed for bankruptcy. so, of course, they're sick of it. they have families to feed as well. they're frustrated. >> yeah, and hostess has already done a lot of different restructuring plans. they're cutting wages 8% next year. they've stopped contributing about 17% to pension plans.
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interestingly enough, the other unions have approved it. they just need the final stamp. >> worst case scenario, if they have to lick wquidatliquidate, possible buyers? >> a lot of people have suspected maybe a competitor like sara lee. at this point, remember e when they first declared bankruptcy last year, they put themselves effectively up for sale. no one stepped up to the plate. two private equity firms with there. some got closer to the finish line than others. they basically said, we're not ready to take on the liability here. it's really anyone's guess as to what happens. >> it's also anyone's guess how you two suddenly became as tall as me. >> that's the magic of television. it's all smoke and mirrors. there's the real size here. thank you very much for that, kayla. want t tonight, the ceo of hostess is going to be on "the kudlow report." if you're wondering what's going to happen with these twinkies, no, we're not going to have a

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